Create one sales cohort before combining channel reports
Fix the shop, products, date range, currency and observation period. Preserve order IDs where available, and label the report's attribution and refund conventions. A campaign report and a creator report may describe overlapping sales through different attribution rules.
Treat each sale once in the profit calculation while retaining every real cost it incurs. Attribution identifies a reporting relationship; it does not prove the sale would disappear without that channel.
| Input | Use | Avoid |
|---|---|---|
| Unique order sales | Single contribution denominator | Adding overlapping report revenue |
| Eligible affiliate base | Creator commission calculation | Applying one rate to ineligible sales |
| Ad expense | Actual acquisition cost | Removing ads from creator-attributed orders |
| Fixed creator costs | Samples, fees and rights | Assuming the percentage covers every deal cost |
| Refunds and reversals | Mature retained outcome | Comparing early sales with final costs |
Illustrative 100-order campaign cohort
Assume 100 equal €60 French orders at 20% VAT. Forty qualify for 10% creator commission; platform commission is 9% on all gross item sales. Assume €24 product, fulfilment and packaging per order and €600 total ads, with no returns or other costs.
Revenue excluding VAT is €5,000. Platform fees are €540, creator commission €240, goods and fulfilment €2,400 and ads €600, leaving €1,220 contribution. The blended margin is 20.33% of €6,000 gross product sales. All figures are illustrative.
| Line | Calculation | Amount |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue excluding VAT | €6,000 / 1.20 | €5,000 |
| Platform commission | €6,000 × 9% | €540 |
| Creator commission | 40 × €60 × 10% | €240 |
| Goods and fulfilment | 100 × €24 | €2,400 |
| Advertising | Given cohort spend | €600 |
| Contribution | €5,000 − €540 − €240 − €2,400 − €600 | €1,220 |
Calculate a channel budget from the contribution reserve
Before advertising, the illustrative cohort contributes €1,820. To retain a 10% margin on €6,000 gross product sales, reserve €600 and leave at most €1,220 for ads. The corresponding gross-product-sales ROAS threshold is €6,000 / €1,220 = 4.92×.
That blended threshold depends on the 40% eligible affiliate sales share. If all orders become creator-attributed at 10%, creator cost rises to €600 and the ad budget for the same margin falls to €860, requiring 6.98× ROAS. A successful creator programme can change the mix and therefore the advertising guardrail.
Ad budget for target contribution = revenue excluding VAT − platform fees − creator costs − other direct costs − required contributionReview creator-attributed orders independently
The cohort average can hide an unprofitable creator segment subsidised by other orders. Recalculate the attributed orders with their own product mix, ad cost and return outcome. Use eligible revenue share, not simply order share, when their basket values differ.
Samples and fixed creator fees need a separate allocation. If a deal receives most of its value from content usage, retain an explicit content budget and rights basis rather than pretending all of the expense is a commission percentage.
- Deduplicate the represented sales population.
- Calculate final eligible creator commission.
- Add actual ad spend and fixed deal costs once.
- Measure both the blended cohort and creator-attributed segment.
- Recalculate the margin target after refunds mature.
- Use a bounded test for a changed rate or advertising budget.
Why a healthy GMV Max ROI can coexist with weak contribution
Use the existing order-cohort example as a cost bridge. Match the promoted products, dates and mature refund window; count each order once even if it appears in both creator and campaign reports. Compare the campaign’s gross revenue definition with the product-price basis used by the ROAS tool before copying a target into Ads Manager.
| Report field | What it describes | What it does not prove |
|---|---|---|
| Attributed gross revenue | Paid and organic orders for promoted products | Revenue caused only by advertising |
| Ad cost | Campaign advertising spend | Total creator, product, delivery and refund costs |
| Reported ROI | Attributed revenue divided by ad cost | Contribution margin or incremental return |
| Unique settled orders | A deduplicated, comparable cohort | That channel reports are mutually exclusive |
Which channel deserves the next euro?
Average ROAS and historical affiliate contribution do not prove the return on additional spend. The next budget increment may reach different buyers, alter basket mix or create sales that would have happened without it. A controlled experiment is needed to assess incrementality.
Use the calculator to set a loss and contribution boundary for that experiment. Compare retained contribution and cash demands after the outcome matures, while keeping the assumptions that changed between tests visible.